Dermot's diary #2

2026 looks like being a real mixed bag. What's on Celtic's watchlist?
Labs at this time of year are traditionally busy with tests for various sexually transmitted diseases. We see a spike in those PCR requests come January and February. Added to that, this year there's the Foot and Mouth Disease virus to consider. 

Yes. The Foot and Mouth has some interesting aspects to it...

Absolutely. Research is showing that the current spread is partly due to the use of illegal vaccines in South Africa which don't cover the correct strains prevalent in the region. Inevitably cost is at the heart of the matter – those cheaper vaccines are thought to be effective but are not – which ironically leads to greater expense in the long run. Celtic is of course engaged in the testing of animals. We offer two T-qPCR test kits, available here

What is the likely outlook for the outbreak?

The latest information coming out of the Department of Agriculture suggests continued high volatility to mid-2026, followed by a gradual stabilisation over the next 18 months. The mass vaccination strategy is key, announced by the department a few days ago.

And measles. There's a global connection here.

Yes. We’re seeing the incidence of measles continuing its upward trajectory. In South Africa alone there were 139 new cases in a single week this month, with the Western Cape being at the current epicentre. It's serious; measles is a global child and adult killer and the lack of deaths in previous decades (thanks to vaccines) has lulled communities into thinking it is not an issue. It is.

And vaccine scepticism, fuelled by Covid and US health policy, is largely to blame for the uptick. UNICEF and other bodies have moved from the theory stage that vaccine scepticism is a major cause to now classifying it as a documented public health phenomenon.

So we’re seeing a continue demand for Measles PCR tests at Celtic. As many in a month as we would traditionally have a year. 

The rest of 2026 – what’s likely to have impact?

Climate change is affecting disease trends, what we refer to as Vector Range Expansion. It means that as temperatures rise the thermal envelope (the specific temperature range required for survival) for disease vectors like mosquitoes and ticks is shifting toward the poles and up mountains.

That's important for malaria, which can move into areas not traditionally regarded as high risk. Cholera is also a new worry as rising sea temperatures stimulate extreme weather, flooding sewerage works and facilitating the amplification of waterborne pathogens. We're particularly seeing demand for our six malaria tests.

And funding. We know that the withdrawal of funding by the large US agencies has had profound effects on testing and research. How is the sector responding?

It has been brutal. Labs have closed, redundancies are manifest and in some cases, critical research has stalled.

But there are some positives. National governments and other agencies are stepping up, and it has been heartening to see some progress. For example SAMRC released R753m late last year and is managing a dedicated R268m fund specifically for researchers who lost US grants.

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has poured $912m into the Global Fund, targeting TB specifically, the Wellcome Trust has increased its grants for South African labs and the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation committed an additional $135m in late 2025 specifically to protect paediatric HIV and nutrition programmes in South Africa.

Still, lab focus will, by necessity, now be on treatment rather than research, which should be a concern to all.